Reliance Industries is contemplating an offer for T-Mobile Netherlands which if succeeded will be the first global telecom expansion for India’s biggest group.

The group’s chairman Mukesh Ambani has previously mentioned that he wants to expand Reliance’s digital unit Jio Platforms outside India with its end-to-end 5G stack, which includes both equipment and software solutions. So, there could be some synergies between Jio Platforms and Reliance’s plan for T-Mobile Netherlands.

During the pandemic last year, Jio Platforms had raised over $20 billion from investors including Facebook.

However, analysts are not convinced. A report from UBS said Reliance Jio Infocomm benefitted from relatively unique circumstances in the India market, which might not necessarily be replicable in Europe. This is why Reliance may not be able to achieve similar success as it has achieved in India.

Back in India, the telecom market continues to be on the brink of becoming a duopoly as the government is yet to announce any relief measures which may help struggling Vodafone Idea to come out of the woods.

As a last resort, the company has again filed a review petition in the Supreme Court. Vodafone Idea said it would be a ‘Travesty of justice’ if correction of errors in AGR calculation was not allowed. Vi’s review petition was filed within weeks of SC rejecting its earlier appeal to look into alleged arithmetical errors made by the DoT, thus confirming the AGR dues at Rs 58,254 crore, of which it has paid Rs 7,854 crore.

Vi sounded an alarm bell and mentioned, “The petitioner will go under, and its approximately 27.33 (June 2021) crore subscribers will be left high and dry… will lose its investment of lakhs of crores of rupees in this business… approximately 10,000 direct, approximately 10,000 associate employees, and approximately 100,000 distributors, retailers and store staff will lose their jobs and employment.”

According to analysts, if Vi closes down, about 140-150 million 2G subscribers will be worst hit. To continue enjoying mobile services, these users will need to shift to competitors – which may mean either higher tariffs or buying a 4G enabled phone as Reliance Jio operates a fully 4G network. Airtel has started to focus on quality users to improve its average revenue per user, which means these Vi 2G users may be left in lurch if the company goes down.

Though to tap 2G users, Reliance Jio in partnership with Google has announced launch of an affordable smartphone. The price is yet to be revealed but analysts expect it to be highly subsidised. Another set of experts say even at a high subsidy, the basic 2G user won’t be able to afford such a smartphone.

Interestingly, India has already become the fourth largest market for 5G smartphones in terms of shipment at a time when 5G networks are just being piloted in the country by Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea. Clearly, handset companies are driving the growth for the 5G handset ecosystem which is in line with their strategy in the Chinese market.

The 5G spectrum auction is expected to happen next year and it will take another 6-12 months for the launch of the service, which will cater to a niche market. Still, the numbers show the excitement in the user for 5G features.

No wonder, analysts say India is a unique telecom market.

The court had earlier rejected its plea seeking adjustment of AGR due to “arithmetic errors”…