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Fed Minutes Reflect Growing Unease Over High Inflation

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Fed Minutes Reflect Growing Unease Over High Inflation

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled greater concern about inflation in recent weeks.



Photo:

Michael Brochstein/Zuma Press

Federal Reserve officials signaled greater discomfort with high inflation at their meeting last month, where they eyed a faster timetable for raising interest rates this year.

Most central bank officials, in projections released at the conclusion of their Dec. 14-15 meeting, penciled in at least three quarter-percentage-point rate increases this year. In September, around half of those officials thought rate increases could wait until 2023.

Minutes of the meeting, released Wednesday, showed rising concern that higher inflation could persist and force a more aggressive response from the Fed, particularly if businesses and consumers begin to expect prices to keep rising rapidly.

For months, Fed leaders stuck to a view that higher price pressures in 2021 were caused primarily by supply-chain bottlenecks and would ease on their own. But Fed Chairman

Jerome Powell

had before the meeting signaled much less conviction about that forecast, and officials on the policy-setting committee last month broadly shared his views.

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One immediate sign of their concerns could be seen from plans they approved at that meeting to more quickly scale back, or taper, their asset purchases. The Fed wants to end the bond-buying program, a form of economic stimulus, before it lifts short-term rates to curb inflation.

The earlier end to asset purchases—in March, instead of June—opens the door for officials to start raising rates from near zero at their second scheduled meeting this year, in mid-March. The Fed’s next meeting is Jan. 25-26.

“The whole point of accelerating the tapering was…so the March meeting could be a live meeting” to raise rates, said Fed governor

Christopher Waller

in remarks on Dec. 17. “That was the intent.”

The Federal Reserve says it will accelerate the wind-down of its bond-buying program, the biggest step the central bank has taken in reversing its pandemic-era stimulus. Here’s how tapering works, and why it sends markets on edge. Photo illustration: Adele Morgan/WSJ

Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com

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